Unless he's placing all his stock in the uber-conservatively biased Rasmussen Polls, Mitt Romney has to be rather disappointed with his "post-convention bounce". In fact, in a very recent Gallup Poll (which has also been kind to the Republican nominee), it was showcased that this may be the worst post-convention bounce since Gallup started tracking it in 1984. Of all respondents, 40% said they were more likely to vote for Romney following the Republican National Convention, while 38% said they were less likely - a net impact of just +2%. The previous low was following the 2004 GOP convention, where 41% responded they were more likely to vote for George W. Bush, while 38% said they were less likely to vote for him - a net impact of +3%. The average post-convention net impact for the Republican Party has been 10.8% over the past five conventions (including this year's) - 8.8% greater than the result this year.
Outside of the before-mentioned Rasmussen, no post-convention poll has Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama. Ipsos/Reuters has the two candidates tied and Gallup has Obama ahead by one. As these numbers are post-Republican National Convention and pre-Democratic National Convention, they are not good for the Romney camp. As it's anticipated that the DNC will result in a 3-5 point bounce for President Obama, we'll likely be looking at a 3-6% lead for the president going into next week. As these are just national numbers, I'll be extremely curious to see what the post-convention(s) results will be in state polls. To this point, I've only seen such polls from PPP, who showed absolutely no bounce for Romney in the states of Florida and North Carolina, where Obama led by 1 in Florida (and still does) and the two candidates are tied in the Tar Heel state (just as before).
There's a long ways to go until the election, but if I'm a Democrat and supporter of the president being elected to a second-term, I have to like the numbers that have been rolling in these past couple days or so. All the Democrats have to do is not outperform Pinocchio Ryan in terms of his lies or talk to trees, bushes, ceilings or floors during their speeches at the convention and they'll likely see a larger post-convention bump than Republicans - Romney, in particular - received.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/03/republican-convention-mitt-romney_n_1852052.html
Outside of the before-mentioned Rasmussen, no post-convention poll has Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama. Ipsos/Reuters has the two candidates tied and Gallup has Obama ahead by one. As these numbers are post-Republican National Convention and pre-Democratic National Convention, they are not good for the Romney camp. As it's anticipated that the DNC will result in a 3-5 point bounce for President Obama, we'll likely be looking at a 3-6% lead for the president going into next week. As these are just national numbers, I'll be extremely curious to see what the post-convention(s) results will be in state polls. To this point, I've only seen such polls from PPP, who showed absolutely no bounce for Romney in the states of Florida and North Carolina, where Obama led by 1 in Florida (and still does) and the two candidates are tied in the Tar Heel state (just as before).
There's a long ways to go until the election, but if I'm a Democrat and supporter of the president being elected to a second-term, I have to like the numbers that have been rolling in these past couple days or so. All the Democrats have to do is not outperform Pinocchio Ryan in terms of his lies or talk to trees, bushes, ceilings or floors during their speeches at the convention and they'll likely see a larger post-convention bump than Republicans - Romney, in particular - received.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/03/republican-convention-mitt-romney_n_1852052.html
Comments
Post a Comment