It's that time of year again - bowl season. I've finalized my fill-in sheet and am ready to spread my knowledge or lack there of what I see happening in the 35 bowl games. I'll list the games according to confidence level, starting up top with my most confident pick - 35 - and moving way down to my least confident pick - 1.
35 - TCU (over Louisiana Tech in the Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 21st)
TCU is one of the hotter teams in the country and won't have much of a layoff between their final regular season game and the Poinsettia Bowl. They were seen as a disappointment until they defeated then unbeaten Boise State en route to a top 20 ranking at season's end. My only worry with this game is the fact it's my most confident pick, so it would not be a good thing (for me at least) to lose this one.
Result: TCU 31 Louisiana Tech 24 (1-0 for 35 pts.)
34 - Boise State (over Arizona State in the Last Vegas Bowl on Dec. 22nd)
This will be Boise quarterback Kellen Moore's final college game. He's being seen as about a 4th-5th round pick in the draft. It'd be nice for both he and the program to go off on a winning note. Arizona State struggled in the second half of the season and head coach Dennis Erickson is now looking for a new job because of that. The only worry I have with this game is the fact Boise got jobbed when it comes to a BCS-bowl bid and it is possible they may not be as motivated for this game as they would be of a more prestigious game come January. On the other side of it, it could motivate them even more to prove to the world that they were far more deserving of a BCS bowl than the other at-large teams that were selected. I think the latter of the two will be the case, as senior Kellen Moore heads to the NFL draft a winner (what else is new, right?).
Result: Boise State 56 Arizona State 24 (2-0 for 69 pts.)
33 - Oklahoma (over Iowa in the Insight Bowl on Dec. 30th)
As far as speed and talent go, Oklahoma is far superior to Iowa. If the game were played on paper, this would be a blowout. Given the vast disparity in talent and speed, I've giving the Sooners a big advantage in this game, but it does worry me some. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has been known to win some big games and his Hawkeyes could very well want this game more than the Sooners, whom had National Title aspirations going into the season. In the end, though, while I see the Hawkeyes staying close for about a half, I think the Sooners' talent and speed will be too much.
Result: Oklahoma 31 Iowa 14 (3-0 for 102 pts.)
32 - Georgia Tech (over Utah in the Sun Bowl on Dec. 31st)
The middle of the Pac-12 is very questionable and Utah is right there in the middle of the pack (no pun intended). Utah also will not have faced an offense like Georgia Tech's this year - the triple option. With Georgia Tech defensive coordinator Al Groh having some time to prepare for this game and their triple option offense likely racking up plenty of yards and points on the Utes defense, I like the Yellow Jackets in this one. The one worry I have is the Yellow Jackets' defense. They were improved from last season, but still gave up more points and yards than they would have liked to do so.
Result: Utah 30 Georgia Tech 27 OT (3-1 for 102 pts.)
31 - Southern Mississippi (over Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl on Dec. 24th)
Nevada head coach Chris Ault had another successful season, but his team is not nearly as dynamic this year as they were with Colin Kaepernick at the helm. Southern Miss is a borderline top 25 team whom is coming off their biggest win of the season, a dominating performance in the Conference-USA Championship Game against then undefeated Houston. I like for Southern Miss to build off that huge win and end their season with a win in the Hawaii Bowl, landing them in the top 25 when all is said and done.
Result: Southern Mississippi 24 Nevada 17 (4-1 for 133 pts.)
30 - Baylor (over Washington in the Alamo Bowl on Dec. 29th)
There are two things that worry me about this game - Baylor's defense and the Heisman Trophy curse. With all the attention Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III has been and will receive in the run-up to the Alamo Bowl, it'll be interesting to see if that distracts him at all and prevents him from having another video game-like day. For how focused and mature the guy has been all year, I have a difficult time believing that's going to happen and he will present a weapon behind center that the Huskies' defense will not have seen the likes of all year, one Washington will not be able to handle.
Result: Baylor 67 Washington 56 (5-1 for 163 pts.)
29 - Texas A&M (over Northwestern in the Meineke Car Care Bowl on Dec. 31st)
Like the Oklahoma/Iowa game, Texas A&M is far more talented and faster than their opponent, Northwestern in this case. However, A&M is going through a coaching change, as Mike Sherman was fired and Houston coach Kevin Sumlin was just recently hired. Northwestern has an offense which can be difficult to defend at times, but like with the Oklahoma/Iowa game, I think A&M's speed will be too much for the Wildcats at game's end.
Result: Texas A&M 33 Northwestern 22 (6-1 for 192 pts.)
28 - Mississippi State (over Wake Forest in the Music City Bowl on Dec. 30th)
Dan Mullen and his Mississippi State club had a disappointing 6-6 season this year, but made their 2nd consecutive bowl game. Wake Forest was up and down as is typical for them and finished 6-6, which is also fairly typical for them it seems. I hate to keep resorting to this, but I think Mississippi State of the SEC will be too fast for Wake Forest. Wake was dominated by Vanderbilt of the SEC 41-7 to close their regular season. Vandy's offense isn't know to put up many points. If they can score 41 on Wake, I have to imagine Mississippi State will be able to put up a few as well.
Result: Mississippi State 23 Wake Forest 17 (7-1 for 220 pts.)
27 - Penn State (over Houston in the TicketCity Bowl on Jan. 2nd)
I've been a Penn State-doubter all year and can't say I'm a huge fan of them after the Jerry Sandusky scandal. HOWEVER, they have a stout defense, have played teams tough all year (Alabama being the exception) and on Houston's sub-par defense, I think Penn State should be able to put up a few points. On the other side of things, Houston coach Kevin Sumlin is now Texas A&M's coach and the Cougars' typically explosive offense will go head-to-head with the best defense they've played all year. I typically go with good defense over good offense and will again here.
Result: Houston 30 Penn State 14 (7-2 for 220 pts.)
26 - Georgia (over Michigan State in the Outback Bowl on Jan. 2nd)
While Georgia was disappointed in their loss to LSU in the SEC Title Game, they did play well for about a half and even led the Tigers for a while in the game before LSU dominated in the 2nd half (as usual). Before that game, though, Georgia had won 10 straight after losing their first two games, to Boise State and South Carolina, respectively. Michigan State played well for the most part this season, but are still a bit of an enigma to me. They got clobbered by Notre Dame, won with scoring only 10 points against Ohio State, beat Wisconsin in the regular season with a last-second hail mary and lost a shootout to those same Badgers in the Big Ten Championship. I think Georgia's defense will be able to contain the Michigan State offense better than the other way around. Once again, with the SEC, it's about speed and Michigan State hasn't faced a defense like the Bulldogs' this season.
Result: Michigan State 33 Georgia 30 3OT (7-3 for 220 pts.)
25 - Ohio State (over Florida in the Gator Bowl on Jan. 2nd)
This should be called the Urban Meyer Bowl. The former Gators' head coach, whom won two national championships with the team, was recently hired by Ohio State. This should be a fairly low-scoring game, as both teams thrive on their solid defense and have had inconsistent offenses. Given that, though, I think Buckeyes' quarterback Braxton Miller has been improving as he's been getting more reps and should continue that trend by giving the Gators' defense headaches with his running ability.
Result: Florida 24 Ohio State 17 (7-4 for 220 pts.)
24 - Nebraska (over South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl on Jan. 2nd)
This isn't the first time Nebraska has faced Steve Spurrier. The Cornhuskers dominated Spurrier and his Gators in the 1995 National Championship Game. Both teams have pretty solid defenses, but Carolina's offense was hampered this year by suspension (quarterback Garcia) and injury (tailback Lattimore). Due to that, I give the edge to the Cornhuskers. The big X factor will be Nebraska starting quarterback Taylor Martinez. His passing numbers have improved over the past few games and he can be explosive when he breaks outside and runs the football, but he's also been prone to the turnover. If he's careful with the football, I think NU should be on their way to a 10-win season and I think he'll/they'll do just that.
Result: South Carolina 30 Nebraska 13 (7-5 for 220 pts.)
23 - North Carolina State (over Louisville in the Belk Bowl on Dec. 27th)
This is an interesting game. Louisville didn't have high expectations coming into the season and they got off to a slow start this season, but with their underrated defense and newcomer quarterback Bridgewater improving with each and every game, they tied for the Big East title. NC State got off to a sluggish start as well, but were one of the hotter teams in the ACC the last half of the season. With disciplinarian Tom O'Brien as head coach of NC State preparing his Wolfpack for the bowl game along with the suddenly explosive offense, I like them to beat the Cardinals. Louisville will be a team to look out for in the next year or two, though.
Result: North Carolina State 31 Louisville 24 (8-5 for 243 pts.)
22 - Purdue (over Western Michigan in the Little Caesars Bowl on Dec. 27th)
Purdue looked awful early in the season, but have come along nicely. Their defense is better than most people realize and their offense, while not as dynamic as when Joe Tiller was the head coach in West Lafayette, they have improved as the seasons has progressed. Western Michigan has had a solid season, but given how they fared against the Big Ten early in the season and how Purdue played in the 2nd half, I like the Boilermakers here.
Result: Purdue 37 Western Michigan 32 (9-5 for 265 pts.)
21 - Vanderbilt (over Cincinnati in the Liberty Bowl on Dec. 31st)
Both teams feed off their defenses. What else is new with Vandy? They seem to have a solid defense each and every year and are a pain in the backside of most opponents. Their offense just lacks the punch to place the team over the top at game's end. Cincinnati has been known more for their offensive potency in recent years, with their defense typically making games interesting. It should be a fairly low-scoring battle, but with star quarterback Zach Callaros out with injury for the Bearcats, I like Vandy shut down Cincinnati's offense and for Little Aaron Rodgers to place his Commodores over the top of the Bearcats.
Result: Cincinnati 31 Vanderbilt 24 (9-6 for 265 pts.)
20 - Arkansas State (over Northern Illinois in the GoDaddy.com Bowl on Jan. 8th)
Most people don't realize this, but Arkansas State and Northern Illinois are two of the hottest teams in all of college football. But while both teams have been able to score quite a few points throughout the course of the season, Arkansas State has played much more consistently on the other side of the ball than the Huskies of Northern Illinois. Given this, I feel more confident in picking Arkansas State. With a win, they may even have an outside chance of finishing in the top 25, if not finish with votes in both polls.
Result: Northern Illinois 38 Arkansas State 20 (9-7 for 265 pts.)
19 - Florida International (over Marshall in the Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl on Dec. 20th)
Two words: T.Y. Hilton. If you haven't seen the guy play, watch this game. He's the starting receiver for Florida International and is one of the best unknown players in all the country. How Florida International recruited him over Florida, Florida State, Miami (Florida), South Florida or Central Florida (yes, a lot of Florida schools) is beyond me. Count on the guy to make some big plays and vault his club to a victory.
Result: Marshall 20 Florida International 10 (9-8 for 265 pts.)
18 - Stanford (over Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 2nd)
Surprised, eh? This is coming from a guy whom thought Oklahoma State should have played in the National Championship against LSU. I still believe that, but I just like how Stanford matches up with the Cowboys. Okie State's defense has been opportunistic at times in causing turnovers, but have allowed far too many yards and points this year. With Andrew Luck at quarterback for the Cardinal, don't expect many mistakes from his end. Also, what many people don't realize is that Stanford has a very balanced offense. Luck gets all of the publicity, but Stanford is just as successful a running team as they are a passing one. With this, they should be able to score all day on the Cowboys' sub-par defense. Oklahoma State and their explosive offense will be able to score some points as well, but Stanford's defense is better than many realize and will limit Okie State's offense more than Okie State will limit Stanford's.
Result: Oklahoma State 41 Stanford 38 OT (9-9 for 265 pts.)
17 - Notre Dame (over Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl on Dec. 29th)
I had a very difficult time making this pick at first. Initially, I went with Florida State. It's like a home game for the Seminoles. They had a pretty good season. It just made sense to go with them. However, after looking through the teams' resume's, Florida State hasn't beaten many bowl teams this year and the ones they have defeated are either 6-6 or 7-5. Notre Dame has been tested much more consistently this year and won the majority of those games, especially after starting the season 0-2. Being more battle-tested and playing well on both the offensive and defensive end in most of those games, I give the edge to the Irish in this one. They have a very balanced offense and a better defense than most people realize.
Result: Florida State 18 Notre Dame 14 (9-10 for 265 pts.)
16 - Oregon (over Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 2nd)
Yeah, I'm placing my faith in the Ducks once again come bowl time. I should have learned my lesson by now, right? They brought their high-flying offense to the Rose Bowl a couple years ago and although they were competitive, their offense wasn't nearly as effective in their loss to Ohio State. The same thing occurred in last year's National Championship Game against Auburn. Oregon's offense moved the ball, but weren't able to cross the goalline very frequently and ended up losing a tightly-contested game. They again have an opportunity to play a big-name school in a major bowl game, with that opponent being Wisconsin. The reason I give the Ducks a decent edge in this game isn't necessarily their offense. Oregon's defense was much steadier this year than Wisconsin's and with that, I like how Oregon's offense matches up with the Badgers' defense more than the reverse. So long as Oregon doesn't turn the ball over like they did against Auburn last year and LSU this year, I think the Ducks should finally win a bowl game under head coach Chip Kelly.
Result: Oregon 45 Wisconsin 38 (10-10 for 281 pts.)
15 - Clemson (over West Virginia in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 4th)
If you like offense and speed at that, this is the game for you! Neither team has a very stout defense, but the two teams have underheralded quarterback in Tahj Boyd of Clemson and Geno Smith of West Virginia. Two guys to watch out for are two of the fastest players I've seen in college football this year: Sammy Watkins of Clemson and Tavon Austin of West Virginia. The two are wide receivers, with Austin handling the return responsibilities as well. Because I think the Tigers defense is slightly better than the Mountaineers, I like them to pull out of this one with a W.
Result: West Virginia 70 Clemson 33 (10-11 for 281 pts.)
14 - Virginia (over Auburn in the Chick-fil-A Bowl on Dec. 31st)
Most people will disagree with me on this pick and that's fine. Virginia was a big surprise this year in the ACC and was one game away from meeting up with Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. Due to that and Auburn having played in a National Championship Game just a year ago, I think most people will see this as a no-brainer and give the edge to the Tigers. HOWEVER, I don't see things like that. Auburn's defense has been dreadful all year. Their offense has been anything but what it was a year ago. They rank near the bottom of the country in passing yards and barely rank in the top 40 in rushing. Virginia has played solid defensively this year and they don't beat themselves. You won't see the Cavaliers turn the ball over much or commit too many penalties. I believe the Cavs will force more mistakes than the reverse and will come out on top at game's end in what would be seen as an upset in most people's minds, but not my own.
Result: Auburn 43 Virginia 24 (10-12 for 281 pts.)
13 - Missouri (over North Carolina in the Independence Bowl on Dec. 26th)
Both teams have had very up and down years, but due to how they finished, I like Missouri to upend the Tar Heels. Mizzou won 4 of their final 5 games, their only loss coming to Baylor by 3 points, beating Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech in that stretch. You can't get much more balanced offensively than the Tigers. On the year, they averaged 236.2 passing yards per game and 236.3 rushing yards. Like I said, it can't get much more balanced than that. I like this balance and improving offense to come through at game's end, as the Tigers finish the year 8-5, winning 5 of their final 6 and heading into the off-season with high hopes for next.
Result: Missouri 41 North Carolina 24 (11-12 for 294 pts.)
12 - Tulsa (over BYU in the Armed Forces Bowl on Dec. 30th)
I really don't like picking against BYU in bowl games. They always seem to play well in the last game of the season. However, I think things will be different this time around. BYU is not as good as their record indicates. They've defeated 1 bowl team this year and that was 7-5 Utah State by 3 points. They allowed 54 points to the sub-par Utah offense. Tulsa, meanwhile, scored at least 31 points in 8 of their 12 games this season, 57 or more in 2 of their final 3 games and beat two bowl teams, SMU and Marshall, by the combined score of 97-24. I think the Tulsa offense will be too much and the Golden Hurricane finish the year with 9 wins, while BYU pulls for Mitt Romney or Jon Huntsman to win the Republican nomination.
Result: BYU 24 Tulsa 21 (11-13 for 294 pts.)
11 - Temple (over Wyoming in the New Mexico Bowl on Dec. 17th)
Like I said earlier, I usually pick good defense over good offense and Temple has a good defense. In 10 of their 12 games, they allowed 21 points or fewer. In 9 of 12 games, they allowed 16 or less. In 5 of 12, they allowed 7 or less. In conjunction with this is the 7th ranked rush offense, averaging a little over 256 yards a game. Unless they turn the ball over, I think the Owls will come out on top.
Result: Temple 37 Wyoming 15 (12-13 for 305 pts.)
10 - Air Force (over Toledo in the Military Bowl on Dec. 28th)
I kept going back and forth on this game. It was tempting to go with Toledo due to their explosive offense. They scored 28 or more points in 10 of 12 games this season and 44 or more in 7 of 12 games. That's the good news. The bad news? Toledo scored 126 points in a two-week span late in the season, 60 and 66, respectively. They went 1-1 in this span, allowing 126 points as well (63 and 63). While they may put up some points in this game, I have to like the ball control offense of Air Force and their minimal mistakes against one of the worst defenses in all of college football. It should be a very interesting game to watch with the different style of offenses. I actually look forward to watching this one, but fittingly, like Air Force to win the Military Bowl.
Result: Toledo 42 Air Force 41 (12-14 for 305 pts.)
9 - California (over Texas in the Holiday Bowl on Dec. 28th)
Like with my pick of Virginia over Auburn, I have a hunch most people picked Texas in this one. Not me. Cal is a young team with plenty of potential and that's what worries me. They were about as consistent as drunk men are when attempting to urinate while standing. Their achilles heel was the turnover. They played better in the last month of the season, though, winning 3 of 4, with their only loss being a 3-point defeat at the hands of Stanford. The reason I'm picking Cal is for how they played late in the season, their talent on offense (albeit young) and their balance on both sides of the ball. Texas, meanwhile, is middle-of-the-pack on defense, but were atrocious on offense late in the season. They scored 69 points in their final 4 games (17.3 ppg), losing 3 of these 4 contests. They scored 5 against Missouri, 13 versus Kansas State and putting up 27 and 24 on the porous defenses of Texas A&M and Baylor. Given all of that, so long as Cal doesn't all the turnover bug to get the best of them, I think they'll have the advantage at game's end here.
Result: Texas 21 California 10 (12-15 for 305 pts.)
8 - Pittsburgh (over SMU in the Compass Bowl on Jan. 7th)
This is kind of an odd game. SMU head coach June Jones was said to have signed to be Arizona State's new head coach, but the offer was strangely pulled at this last minute. So, who did the Sundevils eventually hire? The Pittsburgh head coach, Todd Graham. Due to the odd circumstances surrounding this game, I'm much more uncertain about this pick than I had been. In the end, I like the running game of Pittsburgh with junior tailback Ray Graham to control the clock and frustrate the SMU defense and gun-slinging offense. SMU can rack up many yards through the air, but that didn't equate to a great quantity of points throughout the season. This should be a good game and I could see it going either way, but I'll give a slight edge to the Panthers.
Result: SMU 28 Pittsburgh 6 (12-16 for 305 pts.)
7 - Illinois (over UCLA in the Hunger Bowl on Dec. 31st)
Here's a game which features two teams that have a combined record of 12-13. I don't believe I've ever seen that before. At game's end, it's guaranteed that one of the two teams will finish the year under .500. The two clubs are in the middle of coaching changes, Illinois having fired Ron Zook and UCLA firing Rick Neuheisel. Illinois presents a different kind of offense than UCLA is used to playing in the Pac-12. The Illini's offense has struggled in recent weeks, but I think they'll be more effective in this one and their pretty solid defensive unit will limit the Bruins enough to come out with the victory and finish the season 7-6, while UCLA finishes 6-8.
Result: Illinois 20 UCLA 14 (13-16 for 312 pts.)
6 - Kansas State (over Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 6th)
Here's a game where I'm in the definite minority. As far as talent and speed go, Arkansas holds the definite edge. Arkansas has an explosive offense and an improved defense, but were pummeled in their only two losses of the season, falling to LSU and Alabama by the combined score of 79-31. They defeated five bowl teams: Texas A&M (6-6), Auburn (7-5), Vanderbilt (6-6), South Carolina (10-2) and Mississippi State (6-6). As can be seen, four of the five teams had 7-5 or 6-6 records, three of them finishing the year 6-6. They struggled in wins over Troy, Texas A&M, Mississippi and Vanderbilt, A&M and Vandy going 6-6 and Troy and Ole Miss combining to go 5-19. K-State beat five bowl eligibles: Miami (Florida) (6-6), Baylor (9-3), Missouri (7-5), Texas A&M (6-6) and Texas (7-5). In terms of resumes, the teams are fairly similar. But, I like K-State's option game to frustrate the Hogs' defense and due to controlling the clock, frustrate their offense, as they rush things at times and commit penalties and turn the ball over. As I've learned through the years, don't doubt Bill Snyder. I could honestly see this as a potential blowout in the favor of the Razorbacks, but I think K-State will have the right game plan to control the tempo, the game and finish the season with 11 wins.
Result: Arkansas 29 Kansas State 16 (13-17 for 312 pts.)
5 - Alabama (over LSU in the BCS National Championship on Jan. 9th)
It's a re-match. The teams know one another very well. They were very evenly matched in the first game (LSU won 9-6). Having watched that game, however, I said right when LSU made the game-winning kick in overtime, Alabama was the better of the two teams. If their kicker had come through with any clutch kick in regulation, the Tide would have won the game. I think their defense is more sound all around than the Tigers and with Trent Richardson in the backfield, like their offense a bit better as well. Where LSU holds a fairly significant advantage is in special teams. However, I think the Tide will be smart enough not to punt the ball to Mathieu and make more of their scoring opportunities this go-round than they did the first. Like the first game, I expect this one to be very close, but with at least one touchdown. I like the Tide and for the polls to finish in a possible split for the national title. Playoff anyone?
4 - Ohio (over Utah State in the Potato Bowl on Dec. 17th)
Ohio was pretty consistent and balanced throughout the year and if not for a late-game collapse in the MAC Title game, would have been MAC Champions. The Bobcats have a much better defense than their counterparts do and like I've said time and again, I favor good defense over good offense. The same holds true here as Frank Solich and the Ohio Bobcats get their 10th win of the season.
Result: Ohio 24 Utah State 23
3 - San Diego State (over Louisiana-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl on Dec. 17th)
The Aztecs of San Diego State had a good season overall. What makes me nervous is how they fared against bowl teams. They were 1-4 against such competition, with their only win coming against Air Force (7-5) by 14 somewhat early in the seasons. They lost to Michigan (10-2) by 21, Wyoming (8-4) by 3, TCU (10-2) by 13 and Boise State (11-1) by 17. Looking at the losses, though, the teams they lost to were a combined 39-9 and by a total of 54 points (13.5 avg.). Louisiana-Lafayette, playing in the woeful Sun Belt Conference, played a much weaker schedule and were 1-2 against bowl teams, their lone win versus Florida International (8-4) by 5 semi-early in the season, while they lost to Oklahoma State (11-1) by 27 and Arkansas State (10-2) by 9. Being a bit more battle-tested than Lafayette and a bit more sound on both sides of the ball, I like the Aztecs in a close one.
Result: Louisiana-Lafayette 32 San Diego State 30
2 - Virginia Tech (over Michigan in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 3rd)
Here's yet another upset pick of mine. I actually picked Michigan at first, but after thinking about things, am giving an ever so slight edge to the Hokies. One reason is it seems like most analysts are lambasting the BCS Committee for choosing Virginia Tech to play in a BCS bowl over the likes of Boise State or Kansas State. With nothing to lose, I think Tech will play like it. The X factor, as usual in a Michigan game, is quarterback Denard Robinson. He is explosive at times, but can also be turnover prone and with Bud Foster as defensive coordinator for the Hokies, he/they live off different blitzes and forcing turnovers. Once again, the Hokies have a solid defense, finishing 8th in points against (17.2 p/gm). Michigan's defense improved drastically this year from last, but haven't faced many tailbacks like David Wilson of the Hokies, who is coming off his worst game of the season in the ACC Title Game versus Clemson and will be bound and determined to play well and end the season on a good note. First-year starting quarterback, Logan Thomas, has come a long ways in this season and progressed a great deal since the team's loss to Clemson. Given all of this and Beamer's special teams, I think Virginia Tech will be the more motivated club and will play like it in an upset win over the Wolverines.
Result: Michigan 20 Virginia Tech 17 OT
1 - Rutgers (over Iowa State in the Pinstripe Bowl on Dec. 30th)
Eh, flip a coin on this one. Rutgers won 3 of their final 4 games (including one against Cincinnati), largely due to their defense, as they allowed just 32 points in their 3 wins (10.7 avg.). However, in their one loss, they fell to 5-7 Connecticut 40-22. That was their worst loss of the season, with their other three coming by a combined 14 points (4.7 p/) to teams with a record of 23-13 (all bowl teams). I can't for the life of me figure out Iowa State. They defeated Iowa, Oklahoma State and clobbered Texas Tech when they were ranked in the Top 25. Their six losses, though, all came against bowl teams. They lost these games by a combined 124 points (20.7 p/) to teams with a record of 48-24. While Iowa State definitely played the more difficult schedule, Rutgers definitely has the stronger defense and they should be able to limit the inconsistent Cyclones' offense enough to allow their offense to score enough points to win it for them in the end.
Result: Rutgers 27 Iowa State 13
35 - TCU (over Louisiana Tech in the Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 21st)
TCU is one of the hotter teams in the country and won't have much of a layoff between their final regular season game and the Poinsettia Bowl. They were seen as a disappointment until they defeated then unbeaten Boise State en route to a top 20 ranking at season's end. My only worry with this game is the fact it's my most confident pick, so it would not be a good thing (for me at least) to lose this one.
Result: TCU 31 Louisiana Tech 24 (1-0 for 35 pts.)
34 - Boise State (over Arizona State in the Last Vegas Bowl on Dec. 22nd)
This will be Boise quarterback Kellen Moore's final college game. He's being seen as about a 4th-5th round pick in the draft. It'd be nice for both he and the program to go off on a winning note. Arizona State struggled in the second half of the season and head coach Dennis Erickson is now looking for a new job because of that. The only worry I have with this game is the fact Boise got jobbed when it comes to a BCS-bowl bid and it is possible they may not be as motivated for this game as they would be of a more prestigious game come January. On the other side of it, it could motivate them even more to prove to the world that they were far more deserving of a BCS bowl than the other at-large teams that were selected. I think the latter of the two will be the case, as senior Kellen Moore heads to the NFL draft a winner (what else is new, right?).
Result: Boise State 56 Arizona State 24 (2-0 for 69 pts.)
33 - Oklahoma (over Iowa in the Insight Bowl on Dec. 30th)
As far as speed and talent go, Oklahoma is far superior to Iowa. If the game were played on paper, this would be a blowout. Given the vast disparity in talent and speed, I've giving the Sooners a big advantage in this game, but it does worry me some. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has been known to win some big games and his Hawkeyes could very well want this game more than the Sooners, whom had National Title aspirations going into the season. In the end, though, while I see the Hawkeyes staying close for about a half, I think the Sooners' talent and speed will be too much.
Result: Oklahoma 31 Iowa 14 (3-0 for 102 pts.)
32 - Georgia Tech (over Utah in the Sun Bowl on Dec. 31st)
The middle of the Pac-12 is very questionable and Utah is right there in the middle of the pack (no pun intended). Utah also will not have faced an offense like Georgia Tech's this year - the triple option. With Georgia Tech defensive coordinator Al Groh having some time to prepare for this game and their triple option offense likely racking up plenty of yards and points on the Utes defense, I like the Yellow Jackets in this one. The one worry I have is the Yellow Jackets' defense. They were improved from last season, but still gave up more points and yards than they would have liked to do so.
Result: Utah 30 Georgia Tech 27 OT (3-1 for 102 pts.)
31 - Southern Mississippi (over Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl on Dec. 24th)
Nevada head coach Chris Ault had another successful season, but his team is not nearly as dynamic this year as they were with Colin Kaepernick at the helm. Southern Miss is a borderline top 25 team whom is coming off their biggest win of the season, a dominating performance in the Conference-USA Championship Game against then undefeated Houston. I like for Southern Miss to build off that huge win and end their season with a win in the Hawaii Bowl, landing them in the top 25 when all is said and done.
Result: Southern Mississippi 24 Nevada 17 (4-1 for 133 pts.)
30 - Baylor (over Washington in the Alamo Bowl on Dec. 29th)
There are two things that worry me about this game - Baylor's defense and the Heisman Trophy curse. With all the attention Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III has been and will receive in the run-up to the Alamo Bowl, it'll be interesting to see if that distracts him at all and prevents him from having another video game-like day. For how focused and mature the guy has been all year, I have a difficult time believing that's going to happen and he will present a weapon behind center that the Huskies' defense will not have seen the likes of all year, one Washington will not be able to handle.
Result: Baylor 67 Washington 56 (5-1 for 163 pts.)
29 - Texas A&M (over Northwestern in the Meineke Car Care Bowl on Dec. 31st)
Like the Oklahoma/Iowa game, Texas A&M is far more talented and faster than their opponent, Northwestern in this case. However, A&M is going through a coaching change, as Mike Sherman was fired and Houston coach Kevin Sumlin was just recently hired. Northwestern has an offense which can be difficult to defend at times, but like with the Oklahoma/Iowa game, I think A&M's speed will be too much for the Wildcats at game's end.
Result: Texas A&M 33 Northwestern 22 (6-1 for 192 pts.)
28 - Mississippi State (over Wake Forest in the Music City Bowl on Dec. 30th)
Dan Mullen and his Mississippi State club had a disappointing 6-6 season this year, but made their 2nd consecutive bowl game. Wake Forest was up and down as is typical for them and finished 6-6, which is also fairly typical for them it seems. I hate to keep resorting to this, but I think Mississippi State of the SEC will be too fast for Wake Forest. Wake was dominated by Vanderbilt of the SEC 41-7 to close their regular season. Vandy's offense isn't know to put up many points. If they can score 41 on Wake, I have to imagine Mississippi State will be able to put up a few as well.
Result: Mississippi State 23 Wake Forest 17 (7-1 for 220 pts.)
27 - Penn State (over Houston in the TicketCity Bowl on Jan. 2nd)
I've been a Penn State-doubter all year and can't say I'm a huge fan of them after the Jerry Sandusky scandal. HOWEVER, they have a stout defense, have played teams tough all year (Alabama being the exception) and on Houston's sub-par defense, I think Penn State should be able to put up a few points. On the other side of things, Houston coach Kevin Sumlin is now Texas A&M's coach and the Cougars' typically explosive offense will go head-to-head with the best defense they've played all year. I typically go with good defense over good offense and will again here.
Result: Houston 30 Penn State 14 (7-2 for 220 pts.)
26 - Georgia (over Michigan State in the Outback Bowl on Jan. 2nd)
While Georgia was disappointed in their loss to LSU in the SEC Title Game, they did play well for about a half and even led the Tigers for a while in the game before LSU dominated in the 2nd half (as usual). Before that game, though, Georgia had won 10 straight after losing their first two games, to Boise State and South Carolina, respectively. Michigan State played well for the most part this season, but are still a bit of an enigma to me. They got clobbered by Notre Dame, won with scoring only 10 points against Ohio State, beat Wisconsin in the regular season with a last-second hail mary and lost a shootout to those same Badgers in the Big Ten Championship. I think Georgia's defense will be able to contain the Michigan State offense better than the other way around. Once again, with the SEC, it's about speed and Michigan State hasn't faced a defense like the Bulldogs' this season.
Result: Michigan State 33 Georgia 30 3OT (7-3 for 220 pts.)
25 - Ohio State (over Florida in the Gator Bowl on Jan. 2nd)
This should be called the Urban Meyer Bowl. The former Gators' head coach, whom won two national championships with the team, was recently hired by Ohio State. This should be a fairly low-scoring game, as both teams thrive on their solid defense and have had inconsistent offenses. Given that, though, I think Buckeyes' quarterback Braxton Miller has been improving as he's been getting more reps and should continue that trend by giving the Gators' defense headaches with his running ability.
Result: Florida 24 Ohio State 17 (7-4 for 220 pts.)
24 - Nebraska (over South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl on Jan. 2nd)
This isn't the first time Nebraska has faced Steve Spurrier. The Cornhuskers dominated Spurrier and his Gators in the 1995 National Championship Game. Both teams have pretty solid defenses, but Carolina's offense was hampered this year by suspension (quarterback Garcia) and injury (tailback Lattimore). Due to that, I give the edge to the Cornhuskers. The big X factor will be Nebraska starting quarterback Taylor Martinez. His passing numbers have improved over the past few games and he can be explosive when he breaks outside and runs the football, but he's also been prone to the turnover. If he's careful with the football, I think NU should be on their way to a 10-win season and I think he'll/they'll do just that.
Result: South Carolina 30 Nebraska 13 (7-5 for 220 pts.)
23 - North Carolina State (over Louisville in the Belk Bowl on Dec. 27th)
This is an interesting game. Louisville didn't have high expectations coming into the season and they got off to a slow start this season, but with their underrated defense and newcomer quarterback Bridgewater improving with each and every game, they tied for the Big East title. NC State got off to a sluggish start as well, but were one of the hotter teams in the ACC the last half of the season. With disciplinarian Tom O'Brien as head coach of NC State preparing his Wolfpack for the bowl game along with the suddenly explosive offense, I like them to beat the Cardinals. Louisville will be a team to look out for in the next year or two, though.
Result: North Carolina State 31 Louisville 24 (8-5 for 243 pts.)
22 - Purdue (over Western Michigan in the Little Caesars Bowl on Dec. 27th)
Purdue looked awful early in the season, but have come along nicely. Their defense is better than most people realize and their offense, while not as dynamic as when Joe Tiller was the head coach in West Lafayette, they have improved as the seasons has progressed. Western Michigan has had a solid season, but given how they fared against the Big Ten early in the season and how Purdue played in the 2nd half, I like the Boilermakers here.
Result: Purdue 37 Western Michigan 32 (9-5 for 265 pts.)
21 - Vanderbilt (over Cincinnati in the Liberty Bowl on Dec. 31st)
Both teams feed off their defenses. What else is new with Vandy? They seem to have a solid defense each and every year and are a pain in the backside of most opponents. Their offense just lacks the punch to place the team over the top at game's end. Cincinnati has been known more for their offensive potency in recent years, with their defense typically making games interesting. It should be a fairly low-scoring battle, but with star quarterback Zach Callaros out with injury for the Bearcats, I like Vandy shut down Cincinnati's offense and for Little Aaron Rodgers to place his Commodores over the top of the Bearcats.
Result: Cincinnati 31 Vanderbilt 24 (9-6 for 265 pts.)
20 - Arkansas State (over Northern Illinois in the GoDaddy.com Bowl on Jan. 8th)
Most people don't realize this, but Arkansas State and Northern Illinois are two of the hottest teams in all of college football. But while both teams have been able to score quite a few points throughout the course of the season, Arkansas State has played much more consistently on the other side of the ball than the Huskies of Northern Illinois. Given this, I feel more confident in picking Arkansas State. With a win, they may even have an outside chance of finishing in the top 25, if not finish with votes in both polls.
Result: Northern Illinois 38 Arkansas State 20 (9-7 for 265 pts.)
19 - Florida International (over Marshall in the Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl on Dec. 20th)
Two words: T.Y. Hilton. If you haven't seen the guy play, watch this game. He's the starting receiver for Florida International and is one of the best unknown players in all the country. How Florida International recruited him over Florida, Florida State, Miami (Florida), South Florida or Central Florida (yes, a lot of Florida schools) is beyond me. Count on the guy to make some big plays and vault his club to a victory.
Result: Marshall 20 Florida International 10 (9-8 for 265 pts.)
18 - Stanford (over Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 2nd)
Surprised, eh? This is coming from a guy whom thought Oklahoma State should have played in the National Championship against LSU. I still believe that, but I just like how Stanford matches up with the Cowboys. Okie State's defense has been opportunistic at times in causing turnovers, but have allowed far too many yards and points this year. With Andrew Luck at quarterback for the Cardinal, don't expect many mistakes from his end. Also, what many people don't realize is that Stanford has a very balanced offense. Luck gets all of the publicity, but Stanford is just as successful a running team as they are a passing one. With this, they should be able to score all day on the Cowboys' sub-par defense. Oklahoma State and their explosive offense will be able to score some points as well, but Stanford's defense is better than many realize and will limit Okie State's offense more than Okie State will limit Stanford's.
Result: Oklahoma State 41 Stanford 38 OT (9-9 for 265 pts.)
17 - Notre Dame (over Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl on Dec. 29th)
I had a very difficult time making this pick at first. Initially, I went with Florida State. It's like a home game for the Seminoles. They had a pretty good season. It just made sense to go with them. However, after looking through the teams' resume's, Florida State hasn't beaten many bowl teams this year and the ones they have defeated are either 6-6 or 7-5. Notre Dame has been tested much more consistently this year and won the majority of those games, especially after starting the season 0-2. Being more battle-tested and playing well on both the offensive and defensive end in most of those games, I give the edge to the Irish in this one. They have a very balanced offense and a better defense than most people realize.
Result: Florida State 18 Notre Dame 14 (9-10 for 265 pts.)
16 - Oregon (over Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 2nd)
Yeah, I'm placing my faith in the Ducks once again come bowl time. I should have learned my lesson by now, right? They brought their high-flying offense to the Rose Bowl a couple years ago and although they were competitive, their offense wasn't nearly as effective in their loss to Ohio State. The same thing occurred in last year's National Championship Game against Auburn. Oregon's offense moved the ball, but weren't able to cross the goalline very frequently and ended up losing a tightly-contested game. They again have an opportunity to play a big-name school in a major bowl game, with that opponent being Wisconsin. The reason I give the Ducks a decent edge in this game isn't necessarily their offense. Oregon's defense was much steadier this year than Wisconsin's and with that, I like how Oregon's offense matches up with the Badgers' defense more than the reverse. So long as Oregon doesn't turn the ball over like they did against Auburn last year and LSU this year, I think the Ducks should finally win a bowl game under head coach Chip Kelly.
Result: Oregon 45 Wisconsin 38 (10-10 for 281 pts.)
15 - Clemson (over West Virginia in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 4th)
If you like offense and speed at that, this is the game for you! Neither team has a very stout defense, but the two teams have underheralded quarterback in Tahj Boyd of Clemson and Geno Smith of West Virginia. Two guys to watch out for are two of the fastest players I've seen in college football this year: Sammy Watkins of Clemson and Tavon Austin of West Virginia. The two are wide receivers, with Austin handling the return responsibilities as well. Because I think the Tigers defense is slightly better than the Mountaineers, I like them to pull out of this one with a W.
Result: West Virginia 70 Clemson 33 (10-11 for 281 pts.)
14 - Virginia (over Auburn in the Chick-fil-A Bowl on Dec. 31st)
Most people will disagree with me on this pick and that's fine. Virginia was a big surprise this year in the ACC and was one game away from meeting up with Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. Due to that and Auburn having played in a National Championship Game just a year ago, I think most people will see this as a no-brainer and give the edge to the Tigers. HOWEVER, I don't see things like that. Auburn's defense has been dreadful all year. Their offense has been anything but what it was a year ago. They rank near the bottom of the country in passing yards and barely rank in the top 40 in rushing. Virginia has played solid defensively this year and they don't beat themselves. You won't see the Cavaliers turn the ball over much or commit too many penalties. I believe the Cavs will force more mistakes than the reverse and will come out on top at game's end in what would be seen as an upset in most people's minds, but not my own.
Result: Auburn 43 Virginia 24 (10-12 for 281 pts.)
13 - Missouri (over North Carolina in the Independence Bowl on Dec. 26th)
Both teams have had very up and down years, but due to how they finished, I like Missouri to upend the Tar Heels. Mizzou won 4 of their final 5 games, their only loss coming to Baylor by 3 points, beating Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech in that stretch. You can't get much more balanced offensively than the Tigers. On the year, they averaged 236.2 passing yards per game and 236.3 rushing yards. Like I said, it can't get much more balanced than that. I like this balance and improving offense to come through at game's end, as the Tigers finish the year 8-5, winning 5 of their final 6 and heading into the off-season with high hopes for next.
Result: Missouri 41 North Carolina 24 (11-12 for 294 pts.)
12 - Tulsa (over BYU in the Armed Forces Bowl on Dec. 30th)
I really don't like picking against BYU in bowl games. They always seem to play well in the last game of the season. However, I think things will be different this time around. BYU is not as good as their record indicates. They've defeated 1 bowl team this year and that was 7-5 Utah State by 3 points. They allowed 54 points to the sub-par Utah offense. Tulsa, meanwhile, scored at least 31 points in 8 of their 12 games this season, 57 or more in 2 of their final 3 games and beat two bowl teams, SMU and Marshall, by the combined score of 97-24. I think the Tulsa offense will be too much and the Golden Hurricane finish the year with 9 wins, while BYU pulls for Mitt Romney or Jon Huntsman to win the Republican nomination.
Result: BYU 24 Tulsa 21 (11-13 for 294 pts.)
11 - Temple (over Wyoming in the New Mexico Bowl on Dec. 17th)
Like I said earlier, I usually pick good defense over good offense and Temple has a good defense. In 10 of their 12 games, they allowed 21 points or fewer. In 9 of 12 games, they allowed 16 or less. In 5 of 12, they allowed 7 or less. In conjunction with this is the 7th ranked rush offense, averaging a little over 256 yards a game. Unless they turn the ball over, I think the Owls will come out on top.
Result: Temple 37 Wyoming 15 (12-13 for 305 pts.)
10 - Air Force (over Toledo in the Military Bowl on Dec. 28th)
I kept going back and forth on this game. It was tempting to go with Toledo due to their explosive offense. They scored 28 or more points in 10 of 12 games this season and 44 or more in 7 of 12 games. That's the good news. The bad news? Toledo scored 126 points in a two-week span late in the season, 60 and 66, respectively. They went 1-1 in this span, allowing 126 points as well (63 and 63). While they may put up some points in this game, I have to like the ball control offense of Air Force and their minimal mistakes against one of the worst defenses in all of college football. It should be a very interesting game to watch with the different style of offenses. I actually look forward to watching this one, but fittingly, like Air Force to win the Military Bowl.
Result: Toledo 42 Air Force 41 (12-14 for 305 pts.)
9 - California (over Texas in the Holiday Bowl on Dec. 28th)
Like with my pick of Virginia over Auburn, I have a hunch most people picked Texas in this one. Not me. Cal is a young team with plenty of potential and that's what worries me. They were about as consistent as drunk men are when attempting to urinate while standing. Their achilles heel was the turnover. They played better in the last month of the season, though, winning 3 of 4, with their only loss being a 3-point defeat at the hands of Stanford. The reason I'm picking Cal is for how they played late in the season, their talent on offense (albeit young) and their balance on both sides of the ball. Texas, meanwhile, is middle-of-the-pack on defense, but were atrocious on offense late in the season. They scored 69 points in their final 4 games (17.3 ppg), losing 3 of these 4 contests. They scored 5 against Missouri, 13 versus Kansas State and putting up 27 and 24 on the porous defenses of Texas A&M and Baylor. Given all of that, so long as Cal doesn't all the turnover bug to get the best of them, I think they'll have the advantage at game's end here.
Result: Texas 21 California 10 (12-15 for 305 pts.)
8 - Pittsburgh (over SMU in the Compass Bowl on Jan. 7th)
This is kind of an odd game. SMU head coach June Jones was said to have signed to be Arizona State's new head coach, but the offer was strangely pulled at this last minute. So, who did the Sundevils eventually hire? The Pittsburgh head coach, Todd Graham. Due to the odd circumstances surrounding this game, I'm much more uncertain about this pick than I had been. In the end, I like the running game of Pittsburgh with junior tailback Ray Graham to control the clock and frustrate the SMU defense and gun-slinging offense. SMU can rack up many yards through the air, but that didn't equate to a great quantity of points throughout the season. This should be a good game and I could see it going either way, but I'll give a slight edge to the Panthers.
Result: SMU 28 Pittsburgh 6 (12-16 for 305 pts.)
7 - Illinois (over UCLA in the Hunger Bowl on Dec. 31st)
Here's a game which features two teams that have a combined record of 12-13. I don't believe I've ever seen that before. At game's end, it's guaranteed that one of the two teams will finish the year under .500. The two clubs are in the middle of coaching changes, Illinois having fired Ron Zook and UCLA firing Rick Neuheisel. Illinois presents a different kind of offense than UCLA is used to playing in the Pac-12. The Illini's offense has struggled in recent weeks, but I think they'll be more effective in this one and their pretty solid defensive unit will limit the Bruins enough to come out with the victory and finish the season 7-6, while UCLA finishes 6-8.
Result: Illinois 20 UCLA 14 (13-16 for 312 pts.)
6 - Kansas State (over Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 6th)
Here's a game where I'm in the definite minority. As far as talent and speed go, Arkansas holds the definite edge. Arkansas has an explosive offense and an improved defense, but were pummeled in their only two losses of the season, falling to LSU and Alabama by the combined score of 79-31. They defeated five bowl teams: Texas A&M (6-6), Auburn (7-5), Vanderbilt (6-6), South Carolina (10-2) and Mississippi State (6-6). As can be seen, four of the five teams had 7-5 or 6-6 records, three of them finishing the year 6-6. They struggled in wins over Troy, Texas A&M, Mississippi and Vanderbilt, A&M and Vandy going 6-6 and Troy and Ole Miss combining to go 5-19. K-State beat five bowl eligibles: Miami (Florida) (6-6), Baylor (9-3), Missouri (7-5), Texas A&M (6-6) and Texas (7-5). In terms of resumes, the teams are fairly similar. But, I like K-State's option game to frustrate the Hogs' defense and due to controlling the clock, frustrate their offense, as they rush things at times and commit penalties and turn the ball over. As I've learned through the years, don't doubt Bill Snyder. I could honestly see this as a potential blowout in the favor of the Razorbacks, but I think K-State will have the right game plan to control the tempo, the game and finish the season with 11 wins.
Result: Arkansas 29 Kansas State 16 (13-17 for 312 pts.)
5 - Alabama (over LSU in the BCS National Championship on Jan. 9th)
It's a re-match. The teams know one another very well. They were very evenly matched in the first game (LSU won 9-6). Having watched that game, however, I said right when LSU made the game-winning kick in overtime, Alabama was the better of the two teams. If their kicker had come through with any clutch kick in regulation, the Tide would have won the game. I think their defense is more sound all around than the Tigers and with Trent Richardson in the backfield, like their offense a bit better as well. Where LSU holds a fairly significant advantage is in special teams. However, I think the Tide will be smart enough not to punt the ball to Mathieu and make more of their scoring opportunities this go-round than they did the first. Like the first game, I expect this one to be very close, but with at least one touchdown. I like the Tide and for the polls to finish in a possible split for the national title. Playoff anyone?
4 - Ohio (over Utah State in the Potato Bowl on Dec. 17th)
Ohio was pretty consistent and balanced throughout the year and if not for a late-game collapse in the MAC Title game, would have been MAC Champions. The Bobcats have a much better defense than their counterparts do and like I've said time and again, I favor good defense over good offense. The same holds true here as Frank Solich and the Ohio Bobcats get their 10th win of the season.
Result: Ohio 24 Utah State 23
3 - San Diego State (over Louisiana-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl on Dec. 17th)
The Aztecs of San Diego State had a good season overall. What makes me nervous is how they fared against bowl teams. They were 1-4 against such competition, with their only win coming against Air Force (7-5) by 14 somewhat early in the seasons. They lost to Michigan (10-2) by 21, Wyoming (8-4) by 3, TCU (10-2) by 13 and Boise State (11-1) by 17. Looking at the losses, though, the teams they lost to were a combined 39-9 and by a total of 54 points (13.5 avg.). Louisiana-Lafayette, playing in the woeful Sun Belt Conference, played a much weaker schedule and were 1-2 against bowl teams, their lone win versus Florida International (8-4) by 5 semi-early in the season, while they lost to Oklahoma State (11-1) by 27 and Arkansas State (10-2) by 9. Being a bit more battle-tested than Lafayette and a bit more sound on both sides of the ball, I like the Aztecs in a close one.
Result: Louisiana-Lafayette 32 San Diego State 30
2 - Virginia Tech (over Michigan in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 3rd)
Here's yet another upset pick of mine. I actually picked Michigan at first, but after thinking about things, am giving an ever so slight edge to the Hokies. One reason is it seems like most analysts are lambasting the BCS Committee for choosing Virginia Tech to play in a BCS bowl over the likes of Boise State or Kansas State. With nothing to lose, I think Tech will play like it. The X factor, as usual in a Michigan game, is quarterback Denard Robinson. He is explosive at times, but can also be turnover prone and with Bud Foster as defensive coordinator for the Hokies, he/they live off different blitzes and forcing turnovers. Once again, the Hokies have a solid defense, finishing 8th in points against (17.2 p/gm). Michigan's defense improved drastically this year from last, but haven't faced many tailbacks like David Wilson of the Hokies, who is coming off his worst game of the season in the ACC Title Game versus Clemson and will be bound and determined to play well and end the season on a good note. First-year starting quarterback, Logan Thomas, has come a long ways in this season and progressed a great deal since the team's loss to Clemson. Given all of this and Beamer's special teams, I think Virginia Tech will be the more motivated club and will play like it in an upset win over the Wolverines.
Result: Michigan 20 Virginia Tech 17 OT
1 - Rutgers (over Iowa State in the Pinstripe Bowl on Dec. 30th)
Eh, flip a coin on this one. Rutgers won 3 of their final 4 games (including one against Cincinnati), largely due to their defense, as they allowed just 32 points in their 3 wins (10.7 avg.). However, in their one loss, they fell to 5-7 Connecticut 40-22. That was their worst loss of the season, with their other three coming by a combined 14 points (4.7 p/) to teams with a record of 23-13 (all bowl teams). I can't for the life of me figure out Iowa State. They defeated Iowa, Oklahoma State and clobbered Texas Tech when they were ranked in the Top 25. Their six losses, though, all came against bowl teams. They lost these games by a combined 124 points (20.7 p/) to teams with a record of 48-24. While Iowa State definitely played the more difficult schedule, Rutgers definitely has the stronger defense and they should be able to limit the inconsistent Cyclones' offense enough to allow their offense to score enough points to win it for them in the end.
Result: Rutgers 27 Iowa State 13
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